‘Easy Money’: Polymarket degens dropped $175K on Mayor Wu’s sure thing

BOSTON — In what may be the most one-sided political betting spectacle in recent memory, a staggering $172,696 was wagered on the 2025 Boston mayoral election through the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket even though Mayor Michelle Wu was running virtually unopposed.

The numbers tell a remarkable story: Wu commanded a perfect 100.0% probability of winning on the platform by election day, while her nominal opponents each registered at less than 1% odds. Yet bettors couldn’t resist putting their money down on what was essentially a foregone conclusion.

The Race That Wasn't

The betting frenzy reflects one of the most dramatic political collapses in Boston history. Wu’s commanding performance in September’s preliminary election capturing 72% of the vote compared to just 23% for nonprofit executive Josh Kraft was so devastating that Kraft dropped out of the race within days, leaving Wu as the city’s first mayor to run unopposed since Thomas Menino in 1997.

Despite the lack of competition, Polymarket traders found plenty of action. The individual candidate markets ranged wildly in betting volume, with the most surprising being Althea Garrison’s market, which attracted $70,105 more than four times Wu’s own individual market volume of $16,520.

When a Sure Thing Still Draws Big Money

The breakdown of Polymarket’s betting volume reveals fascinating patterns in how traders approached a certainty:

Althea Garrison (running as a write-in): $70,105

Jorge Mendoza-Iturralde: $39,628

Josh Kraft (dropped out): $16,905

Michelle Wu: $16,520

Ed Flynn: $15,221

William G. Gross: $14,317

The $172,696 in total wagers represents a fascinating phenomenon in prediction markets: even when an outcome appears virtually certain, traders continue placing bets, either seeking marginal gains on near-guaranteed returns or perhaps hoping for an unprecedented black swan event.

A Political Juggernaut

On Tuesday night, Wu secured her second term with a dominant performance in what became little more than a civic formality. Her victory speech at Grace by Nia in the Seaport took direct aim at President Trump, declaring: “Whether we will bow to a criminal who acts like a king” the kind of defiant rhetoric that has defined her tenure and helped solidify her support among Boston’s progressive voters.

The 40-year-old mayor, Boston’s first woman and first Asian American to hold the office, has transformed from a local politician into a national figure, particularly after her combative March appearance before a GOP-led congressional committee examining sanctuary city policies.

For prediction market enthusiasts and political junkies alike, the Boston mayoral race proved that sometimes the most interesting bets aren’t about who wins but about watching just how thoroughly they dominate, and seeing how traders behave when the outcome is never really in doubt.

Sources

Polymarket Boston Mayoral Election Market: https://polymarket.com/event/boston-mayoral-election

WCVB: “‘Boston doesn’t back down’: Boston Mayor Michelle Wu attacks Trump in election night speech” (November 4, 2025): https://www.wcvb.com/article/boston-mayor-unopposed-election-2025/69254398

The Boston Globe: “Mayor Michelle Wu keeps staggering lead over Josh Kraft” (September 10, 2025): https://www.bostonglobe.com/2025/09/09/metro/boston-mayor-election-wu-kraft/

The Boston Globe: “Boston Mayor Michelle Wu officially claims second term” (November 5, 2025): https://www.bostonglobe.com/2025/11/04/metro/michelle-wu-second-term-election-national-figure/

WBUR: “An unopposed Boston Mayor Wu celebrates re-election victory” (November 4, 2025): https://www.wbur.org/news/2025/11/04/michelle-wu-boston-2025-mayoral-race